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At last,
the contents of Aardvark's "million-dollar ideas" notebook
are revealed for all to see!
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The big news in the USA this morning is the fact that the NASDAQ index of
technology stocks has dipped below the 2000 mark -- just a year after it
was bouncing around at the 5,000 level.
In fact, if you were a US tech investor it would certainly be a good day for
taking a valium and going to bed in the hope that things will be better
tomorrow.
Everywhere you look it's more bad news from the tech sector. Even the darling
children of the Net boom such as Yahoo and Cisco have issued strong earnings
warnings and announced cut-backs while the heads of both Amazon and Oracle
are now the targets of either government scrutiny or private lawsuits for the
way they have handled their own stock portfolios.
Meanwhile, half a world away, New Zealanders smile quietly to themselves as
the ride the crest of a mini economic boom brought about by climbing export
receipts for primary produce.
Should we feel smug that our failure to jump onboard the new economy freight
train two or three years ago has actually worked in our favour right now?
Even our close neigbbour Australia is teetering on the edge of what could
be a nasty recession while we continue doing better and better by shipping
dead animals and their various components to markets around the globe.
On the surface, it sounds like we did the right thing by sticking to our
old economy core business activities right?
Well that remains to be seen -- but I'm not so sure. Remember that if our
trading partners are suffering, they will be less able to buy our primary
exports. It could be that we're just (yet again) running well behind the
rest of the world and will sooner or later catch the same economic malaise
that is currently affecting the USA, UK, Japan and Australia.
Remember -- although the tech stocks are getting thrashed, it only looks
as bad as it does because they were so incredibly over-inflated in value
to start with. Where would modern business be without email, websites,
e-commerce, etc?
My prediction: most tech stocks have almost bottomed. The market has almost
finished venting its spleen at those companies whose value was blown up beyond
belief by reckless investors and within six months sanity will return to
the marketplace. People will wake up and realise that the tech sector is
not magical or a road to rapid riches -- it's just another element of a
healthy economy.
Calling All Banks
IDG published another story today in which they document the banks' attempts
at dealing with online credit card fraud.
There's talk of PIN numbers and all sorts of extra complexity in an attempt
to make it harder for online fraudsters to misuse other people's credit card
details.
Well hell -- if there are any bankers reading this, please contact me. I
do have a system in my list of "million dollar ideas" that could virtually
eliminate online credit-card fraud without the need for strong encryption,
PINs, card-readers or other complex and expensive add-ons.
Do I have to finally give in to the pressure that I've been under for the past
four years and move to the USA to get this funded? I despair that such
a valuable idea seems to be ignored by the local investor community and even the banks
which stand to benefit so much when the scope and potential earnings (or
savings) that such a system would generate are obvious.
What's even more frustrating is that the core technology required to implement
this system is simple, proven and inexpensive to put in place. In fact
the biggest problem with taking it to the USA will be the fact that it may
fall below the minimum investment levels set by many VCs.
I rest my case that there is no hi-tech VC infrastructure in NZ.
From Yesterday
Thanks to all those readers who submitted suggestions on how small online
publishers can make money on the Net.
Many lamented the lack of a micropayments system that would allow a pay-per-view
kind of system to be implemented and a similar number suggested that reselling
content to the print media or other sites might be an option.
Suffice to say there appears to be no "magic bullet" to turning an online
publishing presence into a goldmine (although I still have a few ideas of
my own so stay tuned and look for changes!).
As always, your feedback is welcomed.
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Did you tell someone else about Aardvark today? If not then do it
now!
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