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The planet is reaching the point, we're told, where the price of oil will soon skyrocket because we've already extracted all the easily found and mined resources.

So what's the future if we don't have access to affordable oil?

Many "experts" tell us that hydrogen is the answer to our energy needs, being one of the most abundant elements on the planet and with the added bonus that it's virtually pollution-free.

Well I've debunked the hydrogen myth before in this column so I won't waste time doing so again, except to say that we might find ourselves wasting a lot of time, energy and money on what will (at least for the next few decades) be just a dead-end.

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Well that's the bad news, and now for the good news...

The future of our energy supply is solar -- but I'm not talking about a myriad of photovoltaic arrays littered across the roofs of the world. No, I"m talking about the biological conversion of sunlight to liquid fuels that can then be used in fairly standard vehicles.

What will our roads look like in 20 or 30 years?

My bet is that, rather than being filled with quiet, sleek electrically powered vehicles running on hydrogen fuel cells, we'll have diesel-powered ones fueled with biodiesel.

We already have the infrastructure to store, distribute and dispense liquid fuels such as diesel and the manufacture of biodiesel from any number of plant species is well proven and almost economic, even at today's oil prices.

What's more, diesel engines are incredibly efficient -- far more so than the petrol engines that most of us drive.

Couple this high efficiency with the fact that bio-fuels do not represent a nett increase in levels of greenhouse gasses and you can see that this option has everything to recommend it and little against it.

New Zealand is well equipped to become a leading bio-diesel nation, having lots of highly fertile soil capable of growing the most suitable crops in short rotation. We certainly have more arable land than the spare electricity needed to create the hydrogen a fuel-cell based vehicle fleet would require.

I wonder whether it might be a smart idea for government to investigate this option and promote the transition of our vehicle fleet to diesel, plus the formation of a bio-fuel industry here, before we find ourselves held to ransom by the oil barons again.

One thing we know for sure -- eventually it will pay big dividends, both environmentally and economically.

I haven't done the math (although I'm sure someone has) but I don't see why we couldn't become self-sufficient in terms of the fuel needs for our transport fleet -- and that would do wonders for our balance of trade ledger, right?

The "Think Big" energy projects of last century were a huge flop because they were not focused on replacing hydrocarbon fuels with renewable alternatives. I think the biofuel plan would be a whole lot more viable.

What do you think?

Hydrogen or biodiesel? Which will be powering our vehicles in 15 years time?

Should we make the investment now or wait until we're already spending more than we earn just keeping our petrol-based vehicle fleet on the road?

Tell us all and see what others have to say in The Aardvark Forums

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