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Has WW3 begun?

Despite repeated denials that it was going to invade Ukraine, Russia has started its war machine and is now launching attacks on that country.

To be honest, I'm rather surprised by this move on the part of Putin. He has an awful lot to lose and his actions seem petulant rather than smart.

According to the latest reports, cruise missiles, artilery and helicopters have been targeting strategic assets deep within Ukraine, even though Putin claims he is merely liberating border provinces that have expressed a wish for independence.

Prior to this military action on the part of Russia, Western leaders were talking tough. As well as promises of crippling sanctions against Russia, the UK and others were also claiming that they'd be right there, supplying weapons and other support -- short of boots on the ground.

So what's going to happen now?

Well the UK, USA and NATO have moistened their stingiest bus tickets and are threatening to give Russia's wrists a jolly good slapping.

I'm sure Putin will be quaking in his boots at the prospect of being harshly criticised by the West's most powerful leaders.

However, none of this empty rhetoric from the West will have any effect on his plans or actions.

It's looking very much as if we're playing that old "don't cross this line" of brinksmanship that sees the line repeatedly crossed and redrawn because although talk is cheap, action costs lives and money.

Putin's forces will annex Ukraine and Western leaders will be heard to utter "tsk tsk" very, very loudly -- before patting each other on the back and congratulating themselves for being very stern with Russia over this invasion.

Yes, I'm being extremely critical, perhaps more than a little unfairly.

After all, what are the options?

Putin seems to have been reading a little too much of his own publicity recently and, like most people who have an over-estimation of their own worth, probably only has one oar in the water at this stage. He is a very dangerous man with some very nasty weapons at his disposal.

If the USA, NATO or UK were to engage him at a military level and send troops into Ukraine this whole situation could escalate out of hand in a few brief hours.

Both Russia and the West have been sitting on a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons for nearly 70 years now and this is not something we'd like to see used -- either as a result of insanity, desperation or simply as a strategic move by either side. The consequences would be global and this truly would be "the war to end all wars".

So with Putin making veiled threats that he would be prepared to go nuclear if challenged, the West's hands are effectively tied and he can do whatever the hell he wants.

NATO has said that if a single Russian boot lands on the soil of a NATO state then it's "game on" but I doubt that would be the case. Even if Russia continued its annexation beyond Ukraine, the threat of all-out global nuclear war would still be a huge disincentive to do much except bring in some extra wet bus tickets.

In another interesting twist, it seems that this latest confrontation has a significant cyber-aspect to it. One of Russia's first moves was to launch cyber-attacks against key bits of Ukrainian infrastructure, taking out banks and government websites. Apparently the UK and USA are assisting in a cyber-retaliation -- let's hope this doesn't set Putin off.

The bottom line is that the world remains a really messed up place right now. I think we should all be wondering what role China will play in this latest theatre.

There is plenty of talk about China providing Russia with the resources and funding it needs to sidestep the Western sanctions that have been announced. If that's the case then everything gets even more interesting (in a "may you live in interesting times" kind of way).

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