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The last Cheap Chinese Christmas?

Only 20 days to Christmas and it's probably already too late to order cool but very cheap tech stuff from AliExpress as stocking stuffers.

Let's face it, China is a great source of a wide range of gadgetry and technology that is fun to play with and sometimes even rather useful.

Unfortunately, especially for those who live in the USA, this Christmas is probably the last one where this tech will be "cheap" enough to take a punt on.

The spectre of huge tariffs on Chinese imports is probably going to deal a huge blow to the "value" that this Sino-tat represents to the average US resident and it's likely worse than anyone yet realises.

With massive (up to 100 percent) tariffs on Sino-imports, the inflationary effect on the US economy has been significantly underestimated.

You can't just hike or even double the price of a significant percentage of all consumer goods without creating dramatic flow-on effects.

If Trump goes ahead with his proposed tariffs, the USA will become a very expensive place to live.

Everything from toasters to teeshirts and computers to cameras will skyrocket in price, leaving Americans to wonder "where's the money going to come from to pay for this?"

While the rest of the Western world continues to benefit from China's low-cost manufacturing, the USA will be shooting itself in the foot and subjecting its citizens to a significant drop in their standard of living.

The dream is for US-based manufacturers to take over, offering US-made products for a price that is lower than the Sino imports. Unfortunately that's unlikely to happen; at least not any time soon.

Unless Trump wants to sanction the use of forced labour, there's no way that the USA can make stuff as cheap as some Chinese manufacturers.

Then there are the economies of scale, or lack thereof.

The USA may be a large market but I strongly doubt that US-made appliances and gadgets will come even close to competing with their Sino-equivalent on international markets. China will reap the benefit of selling to the world but US manufacturers will be stuck with the much smaller domestic market.

Those in the USA who are thinking that they could make a fortune by setting up manufacturing operations with high margins, protected by stiff anti-Sino tariffs, might also be in for a nasty surprise a few years down the road. What happens when those tariffs are removed or reduced and suddenly there is real competition?

Yes, we can be pretty sure the tariffs will disappear or weaken once there's a change of government in perhaps as little as four years' time. By the time the next election rolls around, Americans will likely be tired of massive inflation, high prices and a precipitously falling standard of living. They'll vote in any party that promises to turn back the clock to the time when TV sets, toasters, washing machines, smartphones and all the other necessities of modern life were just a fraction the price.

When this happens, domestic manufacturers will go to the wall in droves, unable to compete with the cheap Chinese-made products that will once again flood the market.

So Americans, buy up large for Christmas. Get your plastic out and sweep down the virtual isles of AliExpress, Temu and the like. Fill your cupboards with the stuff that will soon cost almost twice as much, for the future looks a bit worrying.

Carpe Diem folks!

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