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I predict Starship will fail

SpaceX is gearing up for another launch of its (so far) ill-fated Starship craft which could happen in the next few days.

Of course I will be watching the livestream because I really enjoy a good fireworks display.

Am I just a jaded cynic?

No, I'm someone with enough knowledge to recognise all the failings of this craft and to join the dots sufficiently to see that it's probably never going to deliver on the promises made for it.

In fact, I predict the whole damn project will end up being cancelled.

Elon Musk's hi-tech strategy of just throwing stuff into the sky and seeing which of it falls and which of it flies is incredibly wastefull, inefficient and ultimately futile.

The proof of this is quickly seen if you examine the timeline that was originally rolled out for the Starship project, versus the reality of today.

Musk proudly announced to the world that we'd already have Starship delivering humans to the surface of the planet Mars by now -- yet he hasn't even gotten a full orbital flight out of an empty Starship and not one has made a landing that left the craft able to be re-used.

Remember, re-usability is one of the big selling points of the Starship but so far -- nothing, zilch, zip.

I've written in previous columns exactly why I think that even the choice of material for its construction is deeply flawed and this week I watched a very interesting video from the Thunderf00t YouTube channel where a Phd took a look at the flaws intrinsic to the craft's thermal insulation technology. Perhaps this helps explain why none of the launches to date have survived re-entry without utter failure or at least significant damage.

The Space Shuttle was doing the whole "reusable manned spacecraft" thing nearly half a century ago and although there were a couple of tragic failures, the program overall was incredibly successful.

Compare this to the nine launches of Starship and SpaceX has effectively delivered nothing more than a fried banana to the Indian Ocean at a cost of billions of dollars.

Sooner or later Musk's empire of smoke and mirrors will crumble. Where's the promised Hyperloop? Where are all those underground freeways promised by The Boring Company? Where's the Tesla Roadster 2? Where are the bullet-proof windows for my Cybertruck?

Smart people may have already been wondering why Musk hasn't been called on his over-promising and under-delivering but there is a reason why, despite a personal fall-out with the US President, Musk continues to receive billions in taxpayer funding.

Starnet.

Not the Starnet you're thinking of though.

Yes, SpaceX's Starnet internet service is pretty impressive but that's not why the US government keeps throwing billions into Musk's pockets. The real reason is SpaceX's military-grade Starshield satellite network, alluded to in this ArsTechnica story.

StarShield is likely now a crucial part of the USA's defense infrastructure so Musk has the US government by the short and curlies. They can't afford for him to go bust because if Starshield was not maintained and operated this would give the USA's enemies (especially China) a huge advantage in any potential conflict.

However, Starship itself, as originally proposed and in its current form, is a bust and I confidently predict it will never be commissioned for any actual mission.

Carpe Diem folks!

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