Aardvark Daily

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Damn, looks like I was right

Welcome to the new year. Today, in my first column for 2008, I'm going to take a quick look back at a prediction I made last year.

In several editions of Aardvark Daily last year, I suggested that we really ought to get this country's knowledge-based economy moving because time was running out for some of our primary-produce and tourism industries -- thanks to the looming spectre of climate change.

Well guess what?

It seems that, at least in respect to tourism, the penny is dropping in places that count.

Researchers and physicists are finally connecting the dots and reaching the same conclusions I did over six months ago.

In this NZ Herald story it is revealed that the environmental impact of tourists visiting NZ during 2005 was the equivalent of all the country's coal, gas and oil-fired electricity generation.

We could, it is suggested, offset the emissions of those gas-guzzling airliners by planting more forest -- but there's a catch there too. The amount of forest we'd need to do this would mean relinquishing some of our highly productive farmland and that would be an even greater economic hit.

Since tourism represents a massive 9% of the nation's GDP, a loss of even half those earnings (due to rising prices or consumer resistance precipitated by a growing awareness the environmental impact) could be devastating.

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So, it would seem -- NZ is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Our tendency to talk and not act in issues relating to fostering a knowledge-based economy is coming back to bite us on the bum.

If we'd really taken the tiger of a KBE by the tail and actually created an environment friendly to knowledge-based industry we might already be riding the crest of a new knowledge wave.

Unfortunately, instead of producing an attractive climate for R&D, incentives for students to study for science degrees instead of Arts and Law, and the funding/support infrastructures that potentially explosive start-ups need -- we simply produced a lot of hot air and rhetoric.

Politicians from all sides of the spectrum were only too happy to attend prestigious seminars and conferences to discuss how NZ was going to wade boldly into a future based on intellectual property and clever ideas -- but they failed to acknowledge that private industry could do little without a change in government policies.

As a result we now find ourselves on the cusp of a very significant decline in two of our key export-earning industries -- and no way to replace the lost revenues.

Our Finance Minister was even heard to proclaim that the image of clever Kiwis coming up with earth-shattering inventions from their sheds was just a silly myth. How inspiring is that for those who might be keen to risk their own time, effort and money to develop a good idea? And just as well Cullen wasn't around when this guy was turning myth into reality.

But let's look forwards...

The very real threat has been identified, how are we going to deal with it?

Can NZ really pull a knowledge-based rabbit out of the hat and reinvent itself as a nation where we foster innovation and hard work through sensible tax incentives and reduced education costs for those who are willing to "pitch in" and commit to earning relevant degrees and using that knowledge right here in Godzone?

All this talk of becoming carbon neutral is just a waste of time if we find that tourists can no longer afford (economically or morally) to fly thousands of Kms to NZ and our primary produce is painted by competitors as being contaminated with "food miles".

If we're going to set carbon neutrality as our goal then lets work hard to create a vibrant R&D community that is focused on inventing, developing and implementing new technologies to achieve this.

Let's make NZ to carbon neutrality what Finland is to the mobile phone or what China is to cheap consumer electronics.

Areas such as wind, wave, tidal and solar power are in their very infancy -- which means there's no better time to steal a lead thanks to smart thinking and hard work.

This year I'll be working very hard in the areas of renewable energy, with a good number of ideas I want to turn into real commercial products and licensable technology.

It's just a shame that the government considers it more important to denigrate rather than assist those (like myself) who will be slaving away in their sheds trying to do something more than limelight the years away spouting rhetoric about such things.

What do you think?

Will climate change really deal a powerful blow to our tourism and primary produce industries? How will we compensate for the loss of earnings?

Is it now time to turn NZ into the renewable energy capital of the world?

Or will we just let this opportunity slide by -- as we did with the first knowledge wave?

Have your say on this...

PERMALINK to this column

Oh, and don't forget today's sci/tech news headlines

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