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China, our new energy overlord?

Huge amounts of effort and money are being spent to avert what some claim will be a run-away catastrophic global warming that threatens all life on the planet.

We're told that our carbon-belching lifestyle is largely responsible for an unprecedented increase in temperatures and dramatic changes in weather patterns that may have already reached "tipping point".

In our efforts to try and avert such disaster, we've been switching from fossil fuel to wind, solar and other forms of non-polluting energy.

Indeed, there are those who believe that the electric vehicle (EV) is already a practical alternative to the traditional fossil-fueled cars we presently drive. Their plan is to have us all weaned off our gas-guzzlers and humming along in our fuel-cell or battery-powered vehicles within a decade or two.

That would be possible -- except for one very important thing...

It seems that the energy and dollar-cost of these vehicles may be about to rise significantly, mainly due to the dent they're making in the supplies of some raw materials.

Regardless of the actual power-source used to create the electricity that drives an EV, they all have small, very efficient electric motors that convert that electrical energy into force and work.

A key to the lightweight and efficiency of these electric motors is the use of "rare earth magnets".

When I was a kid, all we had were steel and alnico magnets. They were weak and little more than a novelty. Even the most powerful permanent-magnet electric motor was heavy and produced very little power.

Then came a new generation of magnets based on ferrite particles. These were much stronger, but still only produced engines with a modest power output and mediocre efficiencies.

It wasn't until "super" magnets were developed using rare-earth elements such as cobalt, neodymium and the like that we got real power and efficiency.

Now the term "rare earth" may give you a clue as to the problem that's just waiting to ankle-tap our plans to fill the world with EVs instead of gas-guzzlers.

Unfortunately, these super-magnet metals are not found in abundance in any economically useful form. You won't find a seam of neodymium ore in the same way you find gold or silver concentrated into a rich vein.

Because they're so reactive, these metals tend to be spread sparsely, compounded into trace elements and this means they can be very expensive (both in terms of energy and money) to extract and refine.

If we were to try and create an EV fleet using neodymium magnets, the demand for this metal would significantly outstrip supply right now and, even if we did increase production, the environmental and energy costs would be significant.

It's not only electric motors that use these metals either. Just as rare-earth magnets make for the most efficient motors, they also make for far more efficient electricity generators.

As we move increasingly towards wind-generators, a further demand will be placed on the mining and refining of these metals.

The price of neodymium has already increased from US$8/kg in 2005 to a peak of US$150/kg in 2007 and there's no indication that this escalation won't continue as demand grows at an exponential rate. Indeed, in a global economy that's increasingly driven by concern over global warming, neodymium futures may be a very worthwhile and lucrative investment for someone with a bit of cash to spare.

It's also worth noting that much of the world's reserve of neodymium oxide is found in China, something that could make them the "Middle East of electrical energy". This would make them to rare-earth magnets what Saudi Arabia, Iraq and similar countries are to oil.

So, until we have a better indication as to just how much energy, environmental damage and cost is involved in electrifying our vehicle fleet and building all those wind-generators we need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, perhaps we ought not get too carried away with touting electricity as the fossil-fuel alternative.

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