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SOPA, suicide for the RIAA and its members?

I've written several columns recently in which I've referenced the USA's attempt to effectively give itself total control of the Net in a way that would allow any it to block access or the provision of services to website for any reason.

So far, the bill that would enable this draconian level of control has not made it into legislation in the USA itself but that hasn't stopped their administration from attempting to force other sovereign nations to implement very similar laws.

Today it was Spain.

The tech news website ZDNet carries an interesting article on this subject which is well worth a read and there is already a healthy discussion ensuing over at Slashdot.

What I found interesting about the "need" for SOPA (apparently because piracy is crippling industries based on IP) was that the latest reports tend to indicate that piracy might not be the problem that some allege.

While the RIAA and others tell us that their sales are being savaged by rampant illegal copying and filesharing -- the real numbers seem to say just the opposite and, for the first time since 2004, the sales of music actually rose by 1.3% last year.

So is SOPA and similarly draconian legislation really necessary?

Well I'm sure the recording industries will claim that this turn-around in sales is just a glitch or a statistical anomaly and that they're still perilously poised on the verge of bankruptcy -- boo hoo.

The reality is however, that both the recording and movie industries have been blaming piracy for too long and it just doesn't wash any more.

They repeatedly tell us that all those illegally copied tracks and movies represent a loss of sales -- but we know that's not true. A huge percentage of those who illegally download or burn a disk would never have actually purchased that intellectual property anyway -- unless perhaps, it was a whole lot cheaper.

Therein lies the rub -- these industries are clearly not delivering a product that many in the marketplace consider to be good value.

In the pre-digital era, if you didn't think an album or movie was good value then you simply didn't buy it or go to the theatre. These days, consumers still have that option -- or they can opt to illegally source a copy via the Net or from a friend.

There is no loss of revenue if someone opts to copy a track or movie instead of simply not buying it because it represents insufficient value -- is there?

It strikes me that "piracy" has been a very handy scapegoat on which to blame a failing business model that does not deliver the levels of value that consumers demand.

The problem with proposed laws like SOPA is that it won't see a sudden and dramatic change of fortunes for the industries it is designed to protect -- because if people can't download those "low/no value" products they'll just do what they did in the 1950s... refuse to buy them.

What might just happen instead is that music sales by the traditional recording industry players will fall to even lower levels -- driven by the fact that many artists may never get enough exposure to "make it" to the point where they represent a "value purchase" to consumers.

Pirated music is in fact a massive promotional tool for the industry and if they effectively destroy piracy then these industries will find themselves forced to spend much more actually promoting their product. That cost will have to be passed on in the form of a higher price that will create even greater buying resistance in the marketplace.

The real winners will be the indie performers and bands -- who will snub their noses at the nasty, punitive RIAA-affiliated labels and go it alone. They will reap rich rewards because, without the overheads of those "fat-cat" executives and pools of corporate lawyers, they'll be the only ones delivering "value" in the music marketplace.

I also predict that with CGI graphics and low-cost hi-def video becoming ever-cheaper and more available, the movie industry may also find itself in the same situation within a few short years.

SOPA may be the bullet that, instead of taking another chunk out of the feet of these industries, goes straight for the heart and kills them dead.

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