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The world's longest-running online daily news and commentary publication, now in its 30th year. The opinion pieces presented here are not purported to be fact but reasonable effort is made to ensure accuracy.

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So this is 2013

7 January 2013

Ah, so it's the start of a whole new year -- 2013 this time. So what's coming up over the next 12 months I wonder?

Well yet again I suspect that those waiting for their flying car or actual practical jetpack will be sorely disappointed, even though predictions during the middle of last century were rife that we'd all be buzzing around the skies rather than the roads by now.

Could 2013 be "the year of the LAN"? Or maybe the year of "the paperless office"?

Nope, those came and went without anyone really noticing and now we're still stuck with wads of dead-tree flesh and the Net has all but eclipsed the LAN as a connectivity concept.

Certainly, 2012 was the year of the tablet and, if some commentators are to be believed, 2013 will be the year in which the Netbook all but disappears (thanks to those tablets).

How about Linux? Will this be the year that the Penguin sees off that pesky Microsoft product? Nah, it's not going to happen.

In past years it's been all about faster PCs, more sophisticated OSes, more flexible applications and greater connectivity speeds -- but 2013 might be a little different I think.

Whereas we've been encouraged to "think big(ger)" for year after year, as the hardware and software vendors try to encourage us to upgrade, upgrade, upgrade -- I think that this year it might be more of a "think small" time.

With the growth in acceptance of "small" devices such as smartphones and tablets, I'm thinking that a lot of the movement will be in the area of computers you can hold or put in your pocket.

Sure, the hard-core gamers will still be fixated on getting the absolute maximum grunt out of their silicon -- but the average folk will simply want their "personal devices" to be more powerful and more capable -- without sacrificing their portability.

I'm picking we'll see some interesting breakthroughs in display technology over the coming 12 months. LCDs just don't cut it in full sunlight but e-ink is too slow and lacking in colour resolution to use for most dynamic displays. OLEDs have been promised for an eternity and maybe there'll be some kind of breakthrough (or other technology) that will deliver us fast, sharp, bright displays that can be viewed in total darkness and full sunlight -- without sucking your batteries dry in a matter of a few short hours.

It's possible that these displays may be of limited lifetimes -- so perhaps they'll become "disposable" and you'll be able to replace them in just a few quick seconds -- as you do now with the batteries in your torch -- but I'm just guessing here.

The focus on renewable energy will taper off a bit this year. Fracking has meant that the urgent need to replace the hydrocarbon with wind, solar or something else has receded somewhat. Unfortunately, people don't look much beyond the end of next week (or the next election) when making important decisions such as those related to energy -- so oil prices won't increase as much as were predicted -- although, thanks to the government's total lack of creative thinking, the pump price for petrol will continue its inexorable rise.

The whole "drone" thing will be very interesting this year. Look for the government to move towards criminalising all but the most trivial of toys in this area. We're told that these drones are simply too dangerous for regular folk to have. Gosh, they could kill! Never the less, the same government will continue to allow (and profit from) the sale of alcohol, tobacco and other far more dangerous things.

One thing to keep a *very* close eye on this year is the TPPA.

We should still be very, very worried about this. Remember -- the government works for *you* -- it is *your* servant -- so why are these talks being conducted under the cloak of secrecy?

"Only those with something to fear have anything to hide!"

And let's hope the whole Kim Dotcom thing gets put to rest and that those who would openly flout the laws of the nation get the punishment they so justly deserve. No, I'm not talking about Dotcom -- I'm talking about those police officers, prosecutors and others who violated the laws of this country under direction of a foreign power. Isn't that very close to an act of treason? And, for the benefit of those who don't know.... the punishment for such an act in NZ includes "imprisonment for life".

Just as well for them, that those who chose to perform such unlawful acts are most unlikely to ever face charges for doing so. Ah, the privileges of power!

But that's enough crystal ball gazing from me for the first column of 2013 -- how about you, the readers, come up with a few predictions of your own. Off to the forums with you!

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