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Superpower versus off-the-shelf

There is some interesting video footage on the news sites today.

It shows what appears to be a small winged craft flying towards and then exploding over a building near the Kremlin in Russia.

The official line from Russia is that they believe this to be a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate their leader Vladimir Putin. Ukrain denies this.

However, it's not the political accusations and denials that concern me, it's the technology involved here.

Although the image is very pixelated, it looks a great deal like this is a fixed-wing craft not totally dissimilar to the one posted to Twitter recently by a group of Ukrainians seeking to build their own DIY cruise missile.

Here is video of the drone's approach and detonation:

Although it is unlikely to be pulsejet-powered (if launched from Ukrainian soil), the craft was obviously capable of making its way of a huge tracts of Russia without detection or interception.

Initially, Russia claimed that the craft had been brought down by the electronic countermeasures in place around the Kremlin but looking at the footage it very much appears as if it auto-detonated exactly where it was supposed to -- directly over the dome.

Given the paltry amount of explosives such a small craft could carry I suspect this was a "fear flight", an operation simply to provide proof of concept rather than to try and inflict any real damage or harm.

The Ukrainian government may have denied involvement but that doesn't mean it might not have been a group of independent fighters who decided to "give it a go". There are a lot of private individuals and groups who are sponsoring such things right now.

For example, A Ukrainian business man is offering a $500K prize to anyone who can successfully land a drone in Red Square during the Victory Day parade due to be held in a few days' time.

I bet there are some heated discussions taking place in Moscow right now with huge concerns that the parade could be the target of perhaps another drone attack. Once again, it's not that such an attack would be likely to cause massive damage, it's the fact that it would be a PR disaster for Putin and his cronies.

In the last few hours Russia announced a no-fly-zone for drones within a 30Km radius of Moscow, a seemingly futile attempt to prevent a repeat of this situation. Sadly for Putin, such a ban will have zero effect in reducing the risk of another demonstration of just how technology is leveling the playing field between superpower and underdog.

This attack has clearly demonstrated just how ineffective Russias anti-drone countermeasures actually are and thus how vulnerable they have become to weapons that have likely been built at very low cost using off-the-shelf technology (I told ya so :-)

It would appear that the Ukrainians have figured out the details without the need for my help. I shall watch with great interest just how much effect these cheap craft have on the course of the conflict.

Carpe Diem folks!

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