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IToldYaSo (yet again): Donut Lab criminal charges

Over the many decades I have been writing this column I've racked up a pretty near perfect score for predicting failures and identifying hype or scams within the tech sector.

Well, sad to say, it's starting to look like I've done it a gain.

I mean it's great for my confidence and reputation but sad for all those who were hoping to hitch their wagon to this claimed tech breakthrough that stood ready to revolutionise the EV industry and many others reliant on high capacity battery storage.

Yes, I'm talking about Donut Lab and their claimed ground-breaking battery technology that promised so much but, as I predicted, failed to deliver on the hype.

The proof(?) of Donut Lab's attempt to overhype and overstate not only the technology but also there readiness to manufacture it have appeared in the form of a criminal complaint filed by the former CCO of Nordic Nano, another Finnish company closely associated with Donut Lab.

Although the original news story is behind a paywall and in Finnish, several other tech media organisations such as Engadget have published versions in English.

Of course at this stage, we're simply talking alleged criminal wrongdoing on the part of Donut Lab so it's not irrefutable proof, the courts haven't yet ruled. However, as the saying goes, "there's seldom smoke without fire" and based on the observations I've previously published in this column, including my interpretation of the "independent" testing that was undertaken, I expect to see some very interesting things unfold here.

So why would anyone engage in such easily detected deception?

Well I did hint that this may have been an attempt to hype up the value of the company and profit by way of an IPO, where the company's principle shareholder(s) would effectively become very wealthy overnight, even without shipping a single cell. I expect that this allegation will have, at least for the time-being, derailed that plan.

What does this mean for the EV and battery industries?

Not much.

It's business as normal right now.

The bulk of EVs,powerwalls and portable electronics will continue to use lithium-ion chemistry or lithium-iron-phosphate. Sodium iron batteries are gaining traction in some areas but their inferior endergy densities on a volumetric and weight basis makes them far less attractive for vehicle use than the other alternatives.

Yes, better battery tech will come along eventually but to be honest, I don't expect to see the kind of massive jump in performance that Donut Lab was touting. Increases will be more incremental and slow to roll out.

This means anyone buying an EV right now is probably not going to end up with buyer's remorse because a new technology outdates the battery chemistry in their cars within the next few years. As a tech commentator I see press releases rolling in from all manner of research groups that claim to have come up with "the next big thing" on a pretty regular basis. Experience has taught me that while this new tech may excel in a particular narrow area, the deficiencies elsewhere generally mean odds are often against it becoming a challenger to the batteries we're using right now.

As always, if you want sage warnings about the things that are too good to be true in the world of technology, make sure you log in every weekday morning to get your daily dose from the guy who's been doing this for longer than almost anyone else on the internet. Despite my recent health challenges, I'm not finished yet! Thirty one years behind me, another thirty one to go?

Carpe Diem folks!

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