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The end of drones and desktop computing

What is going on in the world today?

I have two hobbies that are also vocations but now both are under threat.

Regular readers will know that I'm an avid RC model and drone flyer. If you've been paying attention you'll also know that these hobbies have been increasingly marginalised in recent times by rampant over-regulation, driven by a mix of paranoia and commercial imperatives.

This once family-friendly hobby that boomed after WW2 and again more recently when advancing technology made it possible to create multirotor drones has now been well and truly crushed by excessive regulation and, in the USA, by massive restrictions on the availability and price of craft and their components.

Much of the best drone and RC equipment in the USA is now on "the covered list" which prohibits its importation. Prior to about 2010, the USA was pretty much self-sufficient in respect to hobby parts for RC models. There were many proud US-based companies that specalised in the models and the bits that avid hobbyists relied on to build or fix their own planes.

Now there is virtually no US-made product for this market, or at least none which fits the description of "affordable".

It's the same around the world. Here in New Zealand there used to be an array of kitsets and products that were proudly made right here for avid model flyers. Now there's nothing, it pretty much all comes from China.

Fortunately we don't yet have import bans on this sort of gear but I'm picking that, as a part of "Five Eyes", it will only be a matter of time before our government is hauled into line by its US-based overlords and we also face such restrictions.

But enough about drones and RC models...

What about the other hobby/vocation I've enjoyed for almost 50 years?

I'm talking about computers of course.

Right now, as I type this, I'm surrounded by computers of all shapes and sizes -- so what's the problem?

Well the problem is that the retail/business computer market is crashing and crashing hard.

Around the world, system integrators and parts providers are suffering a massive decline in demand for their product. Some are reporting that their turnover is down by more than 50 percent when compared to the same period last year.

What's the problem?

It's the AI-driven demand for crucial components such as RAM, GPUs and storage, apparently.

This demand has driven up prices by huge multiples over the past six months and that has made new computer systems unaffordable for many. That lack of affordability has seen sales plunge, leaving many in that supply chain struggling to survive -- especially at a time when other costs such as electricity and freight are surging to new highs.

Just the first few minutes of this video from Gamers Nexus will give you a chilling insight into the challenges the industry is already facing right now:

The retail computer industry has never been a high-margin one so the loss of even a small percentage in turnover can turn black ink to red very quickly and few players have the liquidity to sustain those losses for any length of time. If we look at the planned trajectory for AI investment, things are obviously dire for everyone except those who are selling to datacentres.

What's going to happen, as hardware performance on the desktop starts to stagnate? Will there even be another upgrade cycle -- the very thing that keeps many of our PC retailers in business?

Of course, as discussed in a previous column, this plays right into the hands of "big tech". They don't want us having our own powerful desktop computer systems -- they'd rather see us using low-power "thin client" systems and relying instead on subscriptions to their cloud-based services, including AI.

Even the likes of NVIDIA, a company that once proudly claimed to be a key supplier to the "computer gaming" market has now focused almost entirely on AI datacentres. In fact, they no longer break out their revenues from gaming-focused GPUs in their reports -- it's just lumped in with other sundry earnings, representing just a few percent of their bottom line.

So, enjoy your powerful desktop computer while you can because I don't think that even Moore's Law can save it now. The future is probably a machine that costs just as much but has a fraction the raw processing capability -- certainly from a graphics perspective. In fact pretty soon your phone may be your only computing device with the microphone as your primary input device and the speaker as its output. Cloud-based AI will do all the heavy lifting and even the screen will be there only to show you cute cat videos on TikTok.

I'm glad I was around to enjoy the era of desktop computing -- while it lasted.

Carpe Diem folks!

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