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Well about this time of year I've been known to stick my head out and make some bold predictions. Surprisingly enough, some of them often turn out to be correct.

At the risk of making a complete fool of myself, here is this year's prediction.

Microsoft are going to respond to the Linux threat in a decidedly unexpected way.

It's not like the software juggernaut has much option though is it?

Not only is it losing ground to the open source alternatives in the server marketplace but home and small business users are also becoming increasingly disenchanted with the restrictive licensing, spiraling costs, and the looming spectre of digital rights management that are now an intrinsic part of Microsoft's products.

So how will Microsoft fight this seemingly unbeatable challenge to its dominance?

I have a feeling it might decide to fight fire with fire, and don't be at all surprised if we see a Microsoft-branded Linux implementation sometime in the next 18 months.

Readers Say (updated irregularly) MS-Linux... - Allister MS Linux? What? Haven't... - Richard Microsoft Linux... - Peter MS Linux... - El_Man It's not a threat... - Dominic Have Your Say

Okay, I can hear most of you saying "it'll never happen, Microsoft would never do anything to legitimise a competitor's products" -- to which I would reply: Do you remember Java?

Faced with a massive challenge to its dominance in the microcomputer software marketplace, Microsoft set about dismantling the Java threat by embarking on a strategy of embrace, enhance, and assimilate.

First it built a compatible Java system so as to stop many of its customers from leaving the MS flock.

"You don't need/want Sun's Java, you can use Microsoft Java -- it's better" was the catch-cry used to keep previously loyal MS developers from straying.

Microsoft then set about "enhancing" its Java by adding a raft of MS-specific features -- so that programmers were tempted to create non-portable code, tied to the Windows operating system.

Okay, it didn't work out exactly the way they planned in the case of Java (thanks to Sun's savvy legal eagles) but you can bet that they've learnt some valuable lessons and have now honed this strategy as a method of dealing with the Linux challenge.

Let's face it -- instead of repeatedly having to justify claims that Windows is better than Linux, wouldn't it be a whole lot simpler for Microsoft just to say "you don't want to use just *any* Linux, you should use Microsoft Linux -- it's better"

Microsoft knows the absolute importance of owning their customers and launching a house-brand of Linux makes a lot of sense at a time when many of the company's largest clients are dipping their toes in the Linux arena.

By supplying their own branded Linux implementation, Microsoft retains those customers that might have otherwise defected to the Linux camp and that ensures that they continue to have the ability to try and "migrate" those customers back to Windows.

So how will Microsoft make money from selling Linux?

The same way as Red Hat do, plus it will have all those other little goldmines such as the Microsoft-Certified MS-Linux Systems Engineer qualification, the MS-Linux annual upgrade programme, etc, etc.

Also look out for MS-Linux versions of all your favourite Office applications with a twist -- they won't run on other Linux implementations.

Yes, all of this skulduggery can be achieved within the terms of the Linux license and it's a very cheap way for Microsoft to salvage many of those clients who are otherwise preparing to defect.

Now Microsoft's Linux probably won't run quite as well as Windows XP, after all, Microsoft's *real* goal will still be to sell lots of Windows licenses.

However, lots of IT managers will be able to have a play with MS-Linux and then tell the CFO and CEO that "yes, we evaluated Linux but feel that Windows is a superior option at this time".

In fact you can almost guarantee that MS sales reps will be falling over themselves to offer free "evaluation" copies of MS-Linux to their major clients -- just so they can see that it's not really as good as Windows.

And remember -- you heard it here first!

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