Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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Beside the ceramic bowl in my "smallest room" is a large stack of Popular
Mechanics and Popular Science magazines from the 1940s through to the mid 1970s.
These are always an entertaining read for anyone with an interest in technology,
and there are numerous little gems buried within their pages.
For example -- did you know that in 1968 they invented a wet-suit which included
an in-built heating system powered by a radioactive isotope? How nice.
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There's even a feature on hydrogen fuel cells from the mid-60's which claims
that "we may have to wait as long as a decade before these cells become
commonplace in the cars we drive." Oh yeah -- they nailed that one right?
Regular readers of these magazines are probably sorely disappointed right now.
After all, if PM and PS were to be believed, we should have landed on Mars
nearly a decade ago, all have flying cars in the garage, and be able to
enjoy holidays on the moon.
Okay, so the tech-writers and scientists of the 1950s and 1960s got it very
wrong in respect to space exploration and transport, wildly over-estimating
the rate of technological advancement. But they were also equally guilty
of underestimating the pace at which computer technology would improve.
Even your desktop PC is orders of magnitude more powerful than anything
predicted by the scientists of 40 years ago -- but that raises another
question: why hasn't software evolved at the same pace as hardware?
Yes, we do have some nice fancy GUIs and some wonderful applications but
some aspects of computer software are just like predictions of flying
cars and moon-bases.
I refer to basic things like artificial intelligence and reliable
voice recognition.
Even highly sophisticated computer systems such Deep Junior, which recently
began doing battle with chess-master Gary Kasparov, rely not on any inate
intelligence but crude, raw, brute force. It does nothing that couldn't also
be done by a decade-old PC (albeit far more slowly).
And voice recognition? Well there are some systems that can be trained to
recognise spoken commands with stunning accuracy -- but once again it's a brute-force
approach with significant limitations. Many of these systems must still be
trained to recognise an individual's voice, have limited vocabulary and still
fail to work well with regular "fluent" speech.
You only have to watch TV presenters struggling to demonstrate one of the
new crop of hi-tech cars to recognise their voice to see what I mean. Eight
times out of ten their carefully spoken commands are recognised but all too
often several spoken attempts have to be made to do something as trivial
as change the radio station. And heaven help anyone with a lisp!
Will the next real breakthrough in computer technology be the development
of technology that really does produce intelligence from a machine? Imagine
how much of a leap-forward this would be.
What if we could integrate near-perfect speech recognition with an intelligent
data-processing system? You'd have an instant multi-lingual translation device
that would enable you to speak with anyone on the planet. Such a system could
even be integrated into your cellphone, automatically recognising the language
being spoken by the other party and performing transparent two-way verbal
translation.
Unfortunately, the best we can do right now are things like the numerous
online translators you'll find on the Web which have very little appreciation
for grammar or the finer meanings of language.
Of course the downside of true artificial intelligence would be that a
mountain of ethical considerations would suddenly emerge. Is an artificially
intelligent machine actually a life-form? Will it develop emotions? Should
it have its own set of rights?
The future may be more interesting and frightening than the publishers of
Popular Science could ever have imagined.
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