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I refer of course to the arrival of Woosh, the new wireless broadband service from Walker Wireless.

Its agressive launch earlier this month saw customers offered uncapped, true flat-rate broadband access.

This all sounds wonderful doesn't it -- but I must say I have some strong reservations as to exactly how long this situation will last.

Am I just being my usual cynical self, or could there be some substance behind this doubt that's nagging me?

Well let's take a closer look at Woosh, the service, the market and the man whose track record might not bode well for a continued "good deal" for customers.

First-up, it's obvious that Woosh is working hard to recruit new customers right now. To do this, they're doing their best to help people forget that they'll be asked to ante-up nearly $400 for a modem that (presently) only works with the Woosh service.

To help get people over this potential hurdle, they're waiving the normal $44.40 sign-up fee and pitching a 250Kbps uncapped service at a price lower than Telecom's JetStream Starter 128Kbps offering (usually capped at 5 or 10 GB).

But is all this as rosey as it might appear?

Well there's the fine print which says "Subject to reasonable use clause" and a quick gander at the Terms and Conditions indicates that the definition of "reasonable use" is entirely at the discretion of Woosh themselves. Hmmmm....

At their discretion, Woosh can move those who exceed "reasonable use" onto a metered plan (ie: a cap and per-MB charges), or just kick them off completely. (I wonder why this caveat was in the smallest font size supported by HTML?).

And did you know that the CEO of Walker Wireless is none less than Bob Smith, former CEO of Xtra?

Now Bob's no amateur when it comes to squeezing the maximum revenues out of a market. I'd bet that in the medium to long term, he won't be selling Woosh's services any cheaper than he absolutely has to, nor will he be offering more speed or data than is absolutely necessary to *match* Telecom's offerings.

And therein lies a cause for concern.

If you're one of those who pays up your $400 plus $55/month for the current Woosh "limited time offer" then what would you do if old Bob decides it's time to make some money -- so raises the prices and drops the caps to match Telecom's JetStream offerings?

After all, the broadband market hasn't really changed that much has it? It's simply gone from a monopoly to a duopoly.

Woosh can feel very confident that 99.9% of those who have already laid out $400 to buy their Woosh wireless modem aren't going to just throw it in a drawer then pay another $200 for a DSL modem and a $99 setup fee to get JetStream are they? No, they're fully aware that inertia and the cost of changing would allow them to offer exactly the same package as Telecom and still retain almost their entire customer-base -- while earning a very healthy profit margin.

It remains to be seen how well the Woosh system scales in terms of users so it might turn out that it's more profitable to stick with a smaller customer base and charge them Telecom-like fees than to try and grow the market by charging more competitive prices.

One only has to look at the petrol marketplace for an indication of what the broadband market could become...

All the gas stations seem to buy their raw product from the same source (just like most ISPs import their data through the Southern Cross cable) and, despite the fact that they're supposedly all different companies with different cost-structures, they amazingly seem to have exactly the same pump-price. (oh, what a coincidence!)

Although there are multiple suppliers and brands of petrol, there is no real competition -- or at least the companies involved know that there's more to be gained by not *really* competing -- at least on price.

Now, could Woosh and Telecom do the same with broadband access? If the name of the game is *profit* then there's a lot to be said for simply matching your competitor's price in an informal cartel, once you've run a loss-leader long enough to scoop up sufficient market-share.

So, before you plonk down that $400 to have a jolly good "Woosh", stop and think about whether you might be better waiting a few months to see just what constitutes "reasonable use". DSL modems will still be cheaper than wireless ones.

Of course I could be completely wrong and Woosh's arrival may well see a significant long-term reduction in the cost of broadband access -- forcing Telecom to get real and respond to customer's demands. I wouldn't bet money on it though -- and I seem to recall that even Jetstream was uncapped when it was rolled out.

If any Aardvark readers want to share an opinion on today's column or add something, you're invited to chip in and have your say in The Aardvark Forums or, if you prefer, you can contact me directly.

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