Note: This column represents the opinions
of the writer and as such, is not purported as fact
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This morning I set out to write a positive column and set myself the challenge
of saying something nice about Telecom NZ in the process.
Then, while I was trawling the newswires for suitable stories to include in
the headline-links section of this column, I came across
this commentary
from Chris Barton over at the Herald.
After reading that I realised that I'd set myself too difficult a challenge
for a Friday morning and gave up on playing Mr Nice Guy.
My rationale for doing a pro-Telecom column was
this discussion
on the Aardvark Forums where a poster suggests that I'm just going out of
my way to be negative about our encumbent telco.
Well I've got news for that poster -- it's clearly not just Aardvark that
considers Telecom to deserve a good telling-off for the outrageous way
it jealously guards and leverages its monopoly.
And I'm right behind Chris when he suggest that the buck has to stop with
those government ministers who, for whatever reason, seem hell-bent on
ensuring this situation continues.
Now have your say
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There is light on the horizon however, and I suspect that Telecom's shareholders
won't be too happy about it.
After much procrastination and more than a few technical hurdles, it appears
as if the suggestion I made back
in march of 2003 is finally becoming a reality.
But it doesn't stop there.
As Chris Barton has discovered, VOIP using wireless connectivity is ready
for the big-time and wireless internet vendors around NZ are itching to
role out competitive products that knock Telecom out of the loop (so to speak).
In fact, if these wireless companies had half a clue, they'd forget about
pushing broadband internet as their product and focus on selling the
voice connection as an alternative to Telecom.
Not everyone needs broadband internet, but just about everyone *does* need
a telephone -- hence the market is far larger and internet access is just
a bonus for many people.
Once these WiFi-cellular phones become readily available then those companies
who have well-distributed and reliable WiFi networks will really hold the
upper hand and Telecom's grip on the market will be significantly weakened.
But don't expect Telecom to go out without a whimper.
You can bet your bottom dollar that they'll do everything within their power
to bitch, grizzle, moan, lobby and procrastinate over key issues such as
number portability, the provision of reliable/timely interconnects, etc.
It's at this point however that all Telecom's past behaviour might come
back to bite them on the bum. Most consumers tend to be creatures of great
inertia and generally find that there has to be a significant benefit on offer
before they'll go to all the hassle of changing their loyalties. Although
these new providers may well be able to offer those such benefits, I'm thinking
that there are more than a few people who'll jump-ship just to be out from
under the thumb of a company that has repeatedly shown a tendency to abuse
its power.
If Telecom isn't worried by all this, they ought to be.
They must realise that they're in an industry where technology is moving at an increasingly
rapid pace and the market is capable of doing the same. When someone comes out
with a nation-wide low-cost alternative to the regular local-loop voice/data service
that has the added bonus of compatibility with the new dual-mode cellphones,
I expect Telecom will be in big trouble.
The only problem I can see for any would-be competitor to Telecom is that the
company currently expects to show an $820m profit
(that's over $200 profit from every man, woman and child in NZ) next year, which can be poured back into
subsidising its own services through very agressive price-cutting.
Either way, the consumer is the winner though and if Telecom did hack the snot
out of its own prices they'd find it very difficult to explain why, once the
competition was eradicated, they were hiking them back up.
And even if they successfully fended off a wireless attack, there are other
brightlights on the horizon such as Skype (here's an
interesting article from NBR).
So, today's question for the brighter than average people who make up
Aardvark's readership is: would/will you switch to a wireless VOIP provider
when/if one becomes available in your area?
If you've got an opinion, why not tell us all in
Aardvark Forums.
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