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As someone who's always enjoyed an interest in science fiction, one thing I've noticed is that we're pretty poor act actually predicting the future, despite the fact we've been trying to do so for hundreds of years.

Looking back just 50 years at the predictions made in the 1950s about the world we have today in the early 21st century shows just how bad our crystal balls really are.

We have none of the predicted moon bases, trips to mars, flying cars, personal nuclear generators or hand-held laser weapons -- and such things appear as if they're still at least 50 years away.

But even more modest predictions just haven't come to pass, things such as video-phones, household robots, personal jet-packs and the like.

Completely missing from most mid-20th century predictions were the internet, cellphones and SMS messaging, the Xbox/PS2 and the collapse of copyright as a viable method of protecting such intellectual property as music and movies.

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So now I'll do my best to make some predictions for the coming 50 years.

The internet will continue to grow and, with the arrival of an increasingly large amount of broadband content, the infrastructure will become increasingly intelligent.

Look for variants of the internet protocol to pervade all other forms of electronic communications such that it becomes a unifying common platform that will make easy the convergence of TV, radio, mobile phones, data transfer and just about anything else we come up with.

Fibre-optic cable will become/remain the primary conduit for high-bandwidth delivery to the home. Wireless will have a definite role but the limited spectrum available for such things coupled with the massive increase in use means that there's just no way we'll be able to accommodate all our needs with RF alone.

The long-awaited videophone will finally arrive, but it won't really challenge voice-only or even text-based communications.

As far as copyright protection goes, I'm not sure but I know we are almost certainly going to see one of two options being implemented.

The first option is the extension of DRM to the point that all broadcasts and recordings will be protected by very strong rights management systems. As most Aardvark readers are probably aware, such mechanisms won't stop the hard-core pirate however, and trading in pirated material would continue largely unaffected. In fact, with the cost of bandwidth falling like a stone as capacity increases, I'm pretty sure that piracy would explode, despite all that DRM.

The second (and possibly more likely) option is that we all pay a annual IP tax which is then apportioned to performers and the production companies that they work for. Thanks to technology, this apportioning can be easily performed on the basis of the number of times a track/album/movie is consumed by end users.

This method will effectively eliminate all piracy because you'd already be able to download all the music and movies you want at absolutely no charge anyway. The germ of such a system is already used in several countries such as Germany and Canada, where levies on media and some types of recording/playback equipment are passed on to recording artists to compensate them for sales lost to copying.

In reality, the IP tax may well be the most equitable way to compensate those who produce movies and music while ensuring that consumers have the most cost-effective access to such material.

Even lone-performers would gain from such a system insomuch as if their self-published material was downloaded and/or listened to in sufficient volume, they would then qualify for payment from the IP tax-fund. Those with the most to lose are in fact the recording labels and movie studios who presently have an iron-like grip on their respective markets.

Today's task for Aardvark readers is to go find out how much revenue the local recording industry generates in a year then calculate how much the IP tax would have to be in order to match that figure.

But do you think that an IP tax would be a good idea? Would it simultaneously eliminate the problem of piracy while freeing consumers from the tyranny of the industry's monopolistic practices?

If the tax offered the industry the same levels of revenue as they currently earn, do you think they'd be keen -- or would the perhaps recognise that suddenly the independent artists would be empowered and able to grab their fair share of those funds?

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