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Back in the 1980s, Byte columnist
Jerry Pournelle
made frequent use of the acronym RSN -- which stands for "real soon now".
As anyone who's worked in the software/IT industry will know full well,
RSN is a phrase that is not hard to use when it comes to things such as
over-due delivery dates etc.
While trawling the web for good links this morning I had a strange feeling
of deja vu when I came across several stories that I was absolutely sure I'd
read before.
Claims that perpendicular magnetic fields would soon boost the amount of
storage obtainable from conventional hard-drive technology was one such story.
I'm absolutely sure I read exactly the same claims at least five years ago - but
what happened to the promises?
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It strikes me that we're seeing a lot of RSN technology that sits on the
edge of practicality for ages -- sometimes decades.
Fuel-cells, cheap solar arrays, nuclear fusion, etc, etc -- the list is
quite phenomenal.
Let's be clear about this -- I'm not talking about quack ideas like
free energy, cars that run on water, and the like. The technology we're
waiting for is being promised by respected scientists and researchers
with proven track-records and reputations.
So why are we still waiting??
Unfortunately I suspect it's all about the way modern R&D is funded.
Scientific research and the subsequent development into a commercial product
is an incredibly expensive process that requires massive investments in
capital. Once upon a time, much of this money came out of the taxpayer's
pockets by way of government funding.
These days however, researchers are usually reliant on funding from commercial
entities who, in turn, turn to the markets and investors for their money.
I guess it's always a lot easier to attract investor funding when you announce
that you've just made a breakthrough that looks as if it can be commercialised
in just a few short years. Hence, I suspect that most of these "breakthrough"
announcements come from beancounters and marketers, rather than those who
are actually doing the R&D.
Two recent technology "announcements" leave me a little skeptical as to the
chances we'll actually see something concrete.
The first is the new lithium ion battery technology being touted by Toshiba,
the second is that perpendicular recording technology from Hitachi.
It's perhaps not coincidental that the battery and storage markets are amongst
the most competitive areas in the hi-tech world. Announcing the development
of dramatic new breakthroughs can only be good for a company's stock prices -- right?
I guess only time will tell whether we'll be able to recharge our cellphones
in less than a minute or commit terrabytes to our laptop's hard drive within
the next few years.
In the meantime, I'll just sit quietly and wait for those low-cost, high-efficiency
amorphous silicon solar cells that were already supposed to have replaced
the tiles on my roof and made me virtually energy self-sufficient.
And while I'm doing that, I'll browse for that affordable 3D display that can
be viewed from any angle without the need for special glasses or lighting.
Ain't technology great?
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