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Rural users, we're told, will suffer big-time in the wake of the LLU decision. At least that's what the company which promised us "cheaper, faster broadband" is saying... do you believe them this time?

Now, as if to say "nyah nyah, toldyaso" to government, Telecom has decided not to sell it's loss-making Australian subsidiary AAPT. This is probably their way of saying "since you trashed our monopoly, we're going to continue to send Kiwi money offshore to Australia -- so there"

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This is all rather childish behaviour on the part of Telecom and, in the wake of the past week's disastrous results, surely Theresa's position must be at least slightly in doubt.

She played hard-ball with the people of NZ and the government and she lost. It was a really bad call Theresa -- you should have known that you can't trust politicians even when you think you've got them over a barrel. There's a lesson for everyone in that.

However, before we all get carried away (again) in the joy of the moment, let's remember that there's a snot-load of work to be done before this LLU decision becomes a reality.

How much will Telecom charge for access to its copper for instance?

You can bet your bottom dollar that (just like our call-termination rates), Telecom will be demanding a king's ransom from its competitors. There can be little doubt that they'll also impose all manner of inconveniences and conditions on other ISPs, each designed to hinder the government's objective of ramping up true competition in the market.

And what happens if your phone-line develops a fault that kills its high-frequency response (ie: knocks out your ability to get ADSL broadband)?

If you're with an alternative supplier, I would wager a small fortune that you'll suddenly find Telecom far less interested in sorting out your woes.

"Your line is uneconomic to repair for DSL use" could be the phrase that an increasing number of Kiwis hear when their broadband packs-up after a good dose of rain.

On the other hand, look for some really good deals if you're prepared to sign up for a 12-36 month DSL contract with Xtra. Telecom will be trying very hard to tie people to its services for as long as possible. The downside is that such deals will probably only be offered to people in areas where other players are using Telecom's copper. If you're out in the country you'll find yourself paying full whack for the same old substandard service.

Then there's the issue of backhaul capacity.

A snot-load of the data bandwidth around the country is provisioned by Telecom. Do we think that the price of this bandwidth might go up (due to demand rising) once LLU is implemented?

Will ISPs who are prepared to load-up an exchange with their own DSLAMs suddenly find that they're having to fork out an arm and a leg to connect those DSLAMs to any reasonable data trunk?

When considering these questions it's worth remembering just how intransigent Telecom has been so far -- even when the sword of LLU was still dangling over their heads. Now that the axe has fallen, do you really think they're going to become more cooperative?

Quite frankly, I think the government and many ISPs have significantly underestimated the venom and spite that might be boiling away in the halls of Telecom and the effects that these sentiments may have on the practical aspects of implementing LLU.

Of course only time will tell -- and I could be completely wrong.

Theresa may give up her Telecom position and donate the rest of her life to peace-work in war-torn foreign countries. The board of Telecom and its shareholders may turn the giant telco into a not-for-profit organisation (or maybe the government has done that for them :-).

But what do you think?

Will Telecom admit defeat and enter into the spirit of good, healthy competition? Or will it throw all its toys out of the pram and have to be dragged screaming into "the new world" of the unbundled local loop?

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